QUOTE (Metal @ Mar 28 2010, 14:38)

Iotar where did you get those very accurate gaps? Theres no way to count it that well how far behind we are and we are not 0.5 sec behind the Mercs, cmon. We're behind at least 3 teams, but there is something called development, remember Mclaren last year?? Im not saying we will have that kind of a boost, but anything can happen, like Renault in 2008 when at the end it was the 3rd fastest car from 6th spot. The fact that we are bringin new parts for every race, even when there is only a week between them is exeptional and Renault promised a very aggressive development for the whole season, some are saying that in Spain Total will bring new fuel and lubrificant, plus a big aereo package from the team which could give us a 0.5 sec.
Others will develop as well, of course, but if we could get to be the 3rd fastest team(and its not that far away), then in a crazy race we could win like BMW, Toro Rosso and Renault in 2008, like Ferrari last year, like Honda in 2006. We just need to be right behind the leaders to wait for their mistakes.
Qualifying results (Vettel, Rosberg).
Numbers usually don't lie and these are huge differences (1,5s, 0,5s). My point is that a the moment Renault is closer to Williams and Force India than to Merc/McLaren. To regularly challenge/beat Mercedes (for example), you must qualify better and at the moment it's highly unlikely.
Admittedly Renault has some strong points: decent race pace (perhaps related to fuel consumption), solid starts (lighter car maybe, especially compared to midfield teams, it certainly helped Petrov), some sensible development and a top driver.
Maybe it's half-empty glass attitude but I am afraid it won't be enough. Especially on typical aero tracks. Let's put it this way: Bahrain and Melbourne are like Jerez and Valencia - rest of the season might be Barcelona.
I will keep repeating it (from an armchair expert perspective

) but it's all about getting new aero rules right and in that respect Renault is still behind.
In order to challenge top 4 teams they had to either completely redesign aero (didn't happen) or to come with some clever ideas/innovations/bending of the rules like snorkel, adjustable ride height to somehow close the gap. We all know that other teams did just that - better teams - Mclaren/Ferrari/Red Bull.
About development pace - everyone will improve - McLaren already is closer to Ferrari, same for Mercedes and even Williams.