A short Q-Times analysis from my side:
Ferrari and Red Bull, that are the strongest ones, without any doubts, and I don't think that anybody considered that Renault could match them in terms of pace. But similar McLaren and Mercedes (besides some smaller notes about struggling Mercedes) nobody would say yesterday and during the winter that Renault could be a threat for them. The most popular opinion was, that there will be the known TOP 4, and Renault, Williams and Sauber would fight for the BOTR (best of the rest) title.
So lets look how is Renault looking in the BOTR clasification (so with Williams and Sauber) in terms of pace in low fuel qualy runs (I took the Q2 times, becaue the Q3 times were slower, and Kubice had an incident on 16th corner):
11 Robert Kubica Renault 1:54.963
9 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 1:55.330
10 Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 1:55.857
12 Vitaly Petrov Renault 1:56.167 (Q1 time)
22 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari 1:56.237
23 Kamui Kobayashi BMW Sauber-Ferrari 1:56.270
12 Vitaly Petrov Renault 1:56.619
Taking into account, that Vitaly made an mistake, and his pace is like in Q1 about 1:56.167, then its looking like Renault has
for now the pest pace on low fuel. And that's positive

And now lets look at the Q2 times in the McLaren/Mercedes/Renault group:
Nico Rosberg Mercedes Benz GP Ltd 1:54.682
Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 1:54.707
Robert Kubica Renault 1:54.963
Michael Schumacher Mercedes Benz GP Ltd 1:55.105
Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:55.168
Vitaly Petrov Renault 1:56.167 (Q1 time)
Vitaly a total rookie, the
pay driver in a possible little slower car than Kubica (no "snorkel"

) is only 1s slower than the actual WDC, Kubica is faster than two WDC's in McL/MB and slower than the other ones in McL/MB, for me it looks like that the pace of Renault, McLaren and Mercedes is pretty similar in low fuel qualy runs
for now.
And now the optimistic part:
Looking at the armchair specialist technical indications, it's looking like Renault have better pace in heavy cars, because they should be simply lighter on the start.
Looking at the statements, Robert said, that the new parts bring mainly improvements on high fuel pace, and not so on low fuel.
It looks like, that Renault should be have the better "high fuel" pace than McLaren and Mercedes, and if that's not a
very big suprise then what is it?
I'am expecting a
very positive start from Kubica, and hope that his tyre issue won't be crucial.
But once again, tomorrow will prove, if my teories are right, or only BS