QUOTE (stuckinsecond @ Dec 6 2009, 15:05)

Who's the underdog in this pairing? Clearly it is Button. Hence he has got far less to lose. If he beats Lewis, he will be hailed as one of the best and his reputation will go up massively. If he loses, as long as he doesn't lose by Heikki type margins, it will be seen as meeting expectations and he also has the excuse to fall back on that it is "Lewis' environment" as he keeps mentioning so often and it's also his first year at McLaren. Jenson really can take drive this season as if he's got little to lose. The only risk to his reputation is not if he gets beaten by Lewis, but if he gets beaten badly by him. And even then, he'll probably be forgiven if that happens in his first year as long as the gap is less in his second and third year.
Lewis' on the other hand must beat Jenson if his reputation isn't to take a beating. If Lewis is even matched by Jenson, it will be viewed quite negatively. If he's beaten by Jenson, then it will be a nightmare for Lewis. Lewis has never, ever been beaten by a team mate either in his short F1 career, or his very long career in motorsport so far. He's had team mates like the highly rated Rosberg, who he absolutely trounced even though they were team mates in a team started and handpicked by Rosberg's father. Then came Alonso, dispatched (just) in his rookie year. Then came the once highly lauded Heikki, the man Briatore claimed as the next Alonso, whose reputation is in tatters after being destroyed by Lewis. So based on this Lewis is expected to beat his next team mate, and any team mate that holds his own will be viewed in a very positive light. Also if Lewis is beaten by a team mate, it will be interesting to see how he handles it psychologically. He will either become even stronger as he systematically strives to improve even more and iron out his weaknesses. Or it will destroy him.
But I must say, that even though I think Jenson has little to lose by this challenge. It is still brave of him. But he also has the new regulations going in his favour and it may reward his smooth driving style.
Nice post. For me it's just a question of how big the gap will be. I see the probability of Lewis losing and being destroyed as 0.00 x 0.000, he coped OK with losing Euroseries in 04, after all, and with losing 10 races to Fernando, a loss to Jense will just see him head down studying his telemetry.
I think it's a real risk for Jense that he will be Heikki-esque though. Heikki did score about half Lewis' points after all, he wasn't all that bad really, that's 4th when Lewis wins, or 6th when Lewis is 3rd - only 2-3 cars in between.