QUOTE (rsherb @ Mar 13 2010, 16:55)

Many make a lot of Jenson's ability to look after the tyres better than Lewis, and although Jenson's smoothness is naturally more gentle on the tyres, I think Lewis is actually better at this than many credit him (I think he's still trying to shake a reputation that's 2 years old).
I think Jenson's smooth style will only be gentle on the tyres once (or if) he manages to balance the car with less oversteer. What's possibly going to work against him in that area this year is that the ban on pitstops means the balance on the car varies through the race more than ever, with the huge range of fuel levels needing compromise setups. It's very possible that oversteer will be a feature of the cars at some point of the race no matter how well balanced the car is. If Jenson continues to struggle to look after the tyres when he has oversteer, he might find it more than cancels out the gains he has once the balance becomes more neutral or more towards understeer.
My gut instinct is that unless Jenson gets a good balance (for his style) in qualifying, he'll be looking for a few tenths from Lewis most of the time. In a car suited to their individual styles I think both Lewis and Jenson are supremely fast, and I'm not sure I could pick between them, but I think Lewis will loose less time than Jenson when the car isn't matching their natural styles. How Jenson compares to Lewis in the races will be more down to whether McLaren and Jenson can balance the car to make the most of his smooth style. If he's always having to drive against his natural style, he'll be more prone to overdriving and struggling with the tyres. In terms of race craft, Lewis is a little more aggressive with the positives and negatives that brings, and Jenson is a very decisive and clean overtaker, who may not go for the more risky chances but will have less race damaging incidents or errors.
Although I think they are quite closely matched, overall I think Lewis will be ahead of Jenson more than not in qualifying, and will probably have more wins (if the McLaren is a winning car). If the car isn't quite championship winning material, I wouldn't be surprised if the final points tally might be switched, with Jenson collecting points more consistently. I'm certain he'll be more of a threat to Lewis than Heiki was. I fully respect Jenson for being up the challenge of taking on Lewis at McLaren (although I'm sure there were many reasons behind the decision, and not just 'needing the challenge'), and he's more confident in his own ability than many outsiders are.
Your technical-sounding explanation of why Jenson is slower than Lewis is fatally undermined by Jenson having said recently that he doesn't at all mind oversteer – apparently what he really hates is understeer.
You claim that in a car suited to his individual style, Jenson is "supremely fast", and - by implication from your not being able "pick between them" - as quick as Lewis. But where is the evidence for that assertion? Why would the bookies have had Hamilton at an average of something like 5-1 for the WDC pre-season, with Jenson at an average of something like 15-1, or three times less likely to win the title in the same equipment, if they considered the two drivers to be just as quick as each other, with Lewis only having an advantage in some random set of conditions that specifically neutralized Jenson's strengths?
Let's be realistic here. Button is a decent, above average F1 driver. But nothing truly special, as you can see by his results against teammates like Fisi, Ralf, Trulli and a past-his-best Rubens. And I really don't know how any serious F1 fan can claim he is "supremely fast", when he hasn't proven to be so at any point in his decade-long F1 career.
Hamilton is on a different level, and will beat Button like a drum in both qualy and races throughout the season as nearly every serious pundit expects. It sounds to me like you know this, but are trying to lay the groundwork for ensuring that the beating Button will receive can later be attributed to Jenson "having to drive against his natural style", the car not suiting Jenson as much as Lewis, or McLaren not doing enough to work out Jenson's problems with the handling. The last two are not claims you've directly made, but I’m just completing the familiar litany as remembered from the posts of fans of drivers like Kimi, Montoya and Coulthard when trying to justify their heroes’ defeats at the hands of teammates.
But most fans who've seen them both Hamilton and Button perform in F1 know that's rubbish: the reason Jenson will be "a few tenths from Lewis most of the time" is that Lewis is a faster and all round better racing driver. Raising imponderables such as "who the car suits more" or who is "having to drive against his natural style" should really only be permitted when those leading forum discussions down such dead ends can come up with supporting evidence from credible team sources – not F1 hacks, the beaten driver or "sources close to him".